Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad has been overthrown after decades of brutal dictatorship, ushering in a period of transition and government formation.
PeaceRep Communications Manager Allyson Doby highlights PeaceRep research insights into the history of the Syrian conflict and key findings on transitional governance and power-sharing.
Fall of Assad: insights from PeaceRep Syria research
On 8 December 2024, the Hayat Tahrir a-Sham rebel group seized Damascus and deposed president Bashar Al-Assad. The rebel group is understood to be in the process of forming a new government.
PeaceRep research offers insights into the emerging situation through analysis of the conflict landscape, historical data, and best practice in power-sharing and transitional governance. Our researchers draw on longstanding relationships and interdisciplinary expertise to respond to ongoing developments.
PeaceRep commentary in the media
PeaceRep’s Syria research teams are responding with expert commentary and evidence-based analysis of the implications of the fall of Assad and the transfer of power.
LSE Syria Research Director Dr Rim Turkmani has appeared on major news outlets to offer insights into the Syrian conflict and what comes next.
- CNN: interview with Becky Anderson (9 December)
- Sky News Politics Hub: interview with Sophy Ridge (9 December)
- BBC News: interview (9 December)
- BBC Womans Hour: interview on what regime change means for Syrian women (9 December)
- BBC News: Uncertainty grips Damascus as rebels approach Syrian capital (9 December)
- BBC News: Syrian rebels say they have taken control of Homs (9 December)
- BBC News: ‘Incredible but uncertain’: Syrians in UK react to Assad’s downfall (9 December)
Transitional governance and power-sharing
As Syria moves into a new phase, PeaceRep research offers context and background to the conflict alongside best practice in transitional governance and power-sharing.
Transitional arrangements are put in place to bridge the transition from conflict to peace. Transitional arrangements typically aim to restore peace and calm, and to enable conflict resolution and democratic development, in essence aiming to end conflict permanently by building political and legal institutions to deal with its root causes (Bell and Forster, 2021).
Transitions are ‘predictably unpredictable’ – that is, they tend to all hit unravelling points, but for different reasons. A key to supporting transition is building an approach of ‘adaptive management’, understanding timetables and formula might need change over time (Bell and Forster, 2020). Our research outlines key features of transitional governance arrangements – including power-sharing suspension of hostilities, and transfer of power to a post-transition government (Forster, 2019).
Read more key findings on transitional governance.
Power-sharing can be successful at ending violence but often splits power between groups and can build the conflict into new institutions, rather than resolving it (Bell and Pospisil, 2017). It therefore has to be supported over time, and supplemented by other modes of inclusion and rights, if it is to build beyond an elite pact into a broader social contract (Bell, 2018a; Bell 2018b).
Read more key findings on power-sharing and transitions.
Background to the Syrian conflict
The Syrian conflict is divided and fragmented in many shapes and forms, across different levels of control and at different levels of public authority. Our research examines the roots of conflict, potential responses, implications for humanitarian aid, and the power of civil society.
Explore key events and actors in Syria from 1990 onwards with the PA-X Tracker Syria profile. Underpinned by PA-X Peace Agreements data, the Tracker allows easy exploration of peace processes, actors, implementation, and timelines, as well as our Mapping Syria platform covering authority, legitimacy and development.
Explore the Syria profile on the PA-X Tracker
Power peace: The practices of the guarantor states within the Astana peace process fostered the emergence of ‘power peace’, or the pre-eminence of pragmatism, geopolitical interests and statecraft over any ideal of peace. Power peace failed to effectively transform the conflict into an inclusive, sustainable peace system. While the UN-led peace process promoted an ideal of long-term conflict termination, the guarantors implemented short-term conflict stabilisation and endurance of the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad – eluding UN accountability standards for human rights violations, particularly at the local level (Beaujouan, 2024).
Local peacebuilding: PeaceRep research examines the role of local peacebuilding, exploring local agreements as a new form of third-party intervention in protracted conflict (Turkmani, 2022). Our research also finds that during the Covid-19 pandemic, local civil society in Syria emerged as a non-state agent of governance in the absence of effective responses at higher levels of governance (Beaujouan, El hafi, Ghreiz, and Odat, 2022).
Micro enterprise: Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Syria contribute to poverty reduction and peacebuilding at the local level, and they can play a key role in reducing poverty and enhancing social cohesion – if a supportive business environment is in place (Gharibah, Mehchy, and Turkmani, 2022).
Humanitarian aid: European countries and the US remain the largest donors of aid and humanitarian programs. Reconstruction might become the main bone of contention for future mediation efforts; Astana’s pragmatic desire to start rebuilding the country will need to be reconciled with Geneva’s refusal to allow the Syrian regime to sidestep its responsibility for repeated violations of international law during the conflict (Beaujouan, 2024).
Education: The education sector prioritises political rehabilitation and power consolidation over social cohesion and reconciliation. This highlights the challenges of fragmented conflicts and the need for combined efforts to turn education from a weapon into a tool for peace (Al Sakbani and Beaujouan, 2024).
Read more about our Syria research themes and publications
Read our key findings on Syria
PeaceRep Syria research team
PeaceRep’s Syria team comprises the LSE-based Syria research group, University of Edinburgh-based Syria researchers and digital team, and regional research partner LACU.
The Syria research team is led by Rim Turkmani of the LSE Conflict and Civicness Research Group, in collaboration with Mazen Gharibah and Zaki Mehchy. Research on fragmentation and governance is undertaken by Juline Beaujouan at University of Edinburgh, in collaboration with partners based in Syria, Jordan and Turkey.