Understanding the ‘China Factor’ in the Russia-Ukraine War

Authors: Chris Alden, Mariia Zolkina and Lukas Fiala

This paper examines the evolution of China-Ukraine relations from 1991 to April 2025, focusing on the strategic, economic, and geopolitical implications of China’s role in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Traditionally centered on trade, agriculture, and strategic industries, China’s engagement with Ukraine is part of a broader effort to reshape the international order and expand Beijing’s global influence. Since 2022, China has pursued a dual-track policy—maintaining close ties with Moscow while seeking to preserve relations with Europe—leading to increasing skepticism in Kyiv. Ukraine’s early hopes for China’s constructive role in conflict resolution have faded amid evidence of economic and military support for Russia. Beijing’s diplomatic positioning, especially in multilateral forums, seeks to avoid direct criticism while appealing to the Global South. This reflects China’s competing interests: countering US dominance, encouraging European strategic autonomy, and bolstering its leadership claim among developing nations. The report argues that China’s ambiguous stance complicates Ukraine’s foreign policy and post-war planning. Key recommendations include reducing dependence on Chinese investment, strengthening European partnerships, and ensuring European leadership in any future peacekeeping or reconstruction efforts. Understanding the “China factor” is essential for shaping a stable and balanced security environment in Ukraine and Europe.

The Global Transitions Series looks at fragmentations in the global order and how these impact peace and transition settlements. It explores why and how different third-party actors – state, intergovernmental, and non-governmental – intervene in conflicts, and how they see themselves contributing to reduction of conflict and risks of conflict relapse. The series critically assesses the growth and diversification of global and regional responses to contemporary conflicts. It also asks how local actors are navigating this multiplicity of mediators and peacebuilders and how this is shaping conflict outcomes and post-conflict governance.