Towards the Frontline States Concept

Towards the Frontline States Concept: Understanding the Responses to Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Authors: Agata Mazurkiewicz and Wojciech Michnik

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has had significant consequences, including for NATO’s Eastern Flank’s regional security architecture. Following decades of peace in the region, NATO members neighbouring Russia and Ukraine, such as Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and the Baltic states, have found themselves on the border of an active war zone.

The focus in this paper rests on the “frontline states” concept and its explanatory power. The states selected here (Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Romania) for a brief analysis do not constitute a coherent group within “frontline states” category, but rather are selected on a basis of their diversity: Estonia and Latvia (former Soviet republics) are small countries with a high proportion of ethnic Russians and native Russian-speakers; Poland is a regional power in terms of military strength and (relatively) international standing; Romania, bordering both Ukraine and Russia-wary Moldova, has the largest population and territory on the western coast of the Black Sea; while Hungary with its anti-EU and often pro-Russian stance seems to be an outlier among this group of “frontline states”.

The reactions of these states to Russian aggression have been influenced by the existing regional architecture, as well as their respective “troubled” histories of relations with Russia. Hence, the aim of this policy brief is to discuss to what extent the concept of “frontline states” can be applied to understand the reactions and responses of these countries to Russia’s invasion on Ukraine on 24 February 2022.