Somalia in the Horn of Africa – Many Moving Parts

Authors: Nisar Majid and Khalif Abdirahman

This paper synthesizes key analyses from PeaceRep Somalia (LSE) and its predecessor, the Conflict Research Programme, focusing on Somalia’s political dynamics through the lens of the political marketplace framework. This framework emphasizes the personalized and transactional nature of political and economic exchanges in Somalia, often overshadowing formal institutions. Highlighting regional instability across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea Arena, the paper explores how Somalia’s political elites leverage external rents from international actors for domestic gains. The paper addresses geopolitical tensions, including competition among regional powers and ongoing conflicts, which both impact and are impacted by Somali politics. By examining drivers of conflict and stability across interconnected international, regional, national, and local levels, this paper aims to reveal underlying patterns and emergent developments within Somalia’s complex political landscape.