Fragmented Transitions in the Context of Competitive Regionalism: The Case of Ethiopia

Authors: Abel Abate Demissie, Leulseged Girma, and Jan Pospisil

This report aims to explore the new regional configuration in the Wider Horn, with Ethiopia as its centre. It analyses perceptions and expectations of all relevant actors in this configuration, treating Ethiopia as both a country subject to regional power projection in its own fragile political transition, and as a regional player in its own right. After a first outlook on the interlinkages of internal and regional dynamics, the report will expand on the historical pretext of the current configuration that evolves around Ethiopia’s transition. It will then analyse the perceptions and expectations between Ethiopia and the regional players, before suggesting some preliminary conclusions on what could be learned from the dynamic structural setup in the Wider Horn for other transitional regional configurations.

The Global Transitions Series looks at fragmentations in the global order and how these impact peace and transition settlements. It explores why and how different third-party actors – state, intergovernmental, and non-governmental – intervene in conflicts, and how they see themselves contributing to reduction of conflict and risks of conflict relapse. The series critically assesses the growth and diversification of global and regional responses to contemporary conflicts. It also asks how local actors are navigating this multiplicity of mediators and peacebuilders and how this is shaping conflict outcomes and post-conflict governance.