Launching the Series: Syria in Transition: Comparative Lessons and Implications for International Engagement

One year after the fall of the Assad regime and the formation of Syria’s new government, the country stands at a pivotal juncture. Governance under Syria’s new President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is maintained through a mix of transitional, local, and former opposition authorities, yet institutional capacity and legitimacy remain fragile, and long-standing political and social fractures continue to shape daily life. At the same time, these dynamics are also creating a narrow but meaningful opportunity – that if carefully leveraged – could help shape a transition toward a more inclusive, stable, and representative Syrian state.

To support understanding of these dynamics, PeaceRep’s senior researcher Dr Juline Beaujouan and affiliate Rebecca Thompson are launching a new series of policy papers under the umbrella of Syria in Transition: Comparative Lessons and Implications for International Engagement. The first document in the series, released today, serves as a general introduction: it maps the transitional landscape, situates Syria’s challenges in comparative perspective with Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon, and identifies cross-cutting issues likely to shape the transition in the near term. This introductory framework lays the foundation for the focused policy documents to follow between December 2025 and March 2026, which will cover five main sectors:

• Political governance
• Financial restructuring
• International programming and aid delivery
• Social cohesion
• Conflict resolution and local political settlements

Each policy document will provide four core elements: a concise overview of the legacy of the Assad regime and the 14-year conflict, a situational analysis of Syria today, comparative lessons from transitions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon, and a set of policy recommendations. Together, the series provides actionable guidance for international partners aiming to support Syrian-led solutions in a complex and evolving environment.

The series explores the challenges already defining the transition, including rebuilding political and financial governance, navigating hybrid security actors, managing crises and social tensions, and ensuring the meaningful inclusion of minorities, women, and youth. It also examines the pressures of a difficult global context – shrinking aid budgets, climate shocks, technological disruption, and shifting geopolitics – that further complicate Syria’s landscape.

Rather than treating transition as a linear process, the series embraces the “messy timeline” that characterises most peace processes. It recognises that legitimacy is built incrementally, and that informal networks often underpin early stability. The key challenge is to ensure that these early arrangements evolve into transformative, accountable, and representative governance, rather than becoming entrenched in rigid, unaccountable power structures.”

By offering targeted analysis and policy‑relevant recommendations, this series aims to support international partners in calibrating their approaches at a time when Syria’s trajectory is not yet set. The stakes are high not only for Syrians, but for regional stability and the wider international order. In this context, engagement that is reflective, adaptable, and informed by both comparative experience and local realities can make a meaningful difference.

Policy Recommendations

The Syria in Transition policy series highlights five priority areas where Syrian institutions, communities, and their international partners can work together, under Syrian leadership, to support a stable and legitimate transition, summarised here below:

1. Political Governance

• Strengthen local-national linkages through structured forums, advisory channels, and regular engagement with local councils, autonomous administrations, and civil society.
• Improve institutional representation by adjusting selection and appointment mechanisms, introducing enforceable gender and minority benchmarks, and ensuring participation from currently excluded regions.
• Lay the groundwork for future elections through updated census data, strengthened civil registries, voter enrolment (including refugees), and clearer electoral rules.
• Rebalance executive-legislative authority by enhancing the new Assembly’s budgetary and oversight functions and introducing sunset clauses on transitional powers.
• Invest in administrative capacity and transparency by supporting municipal governance, expanding digital tools, publishing laws and budgets, and enabling independent media and civic monitoring.

2. Financial Restructuring

• Protect financial integrity through strengthened anti-money laundering (AML) / Counter Terrorist Financing (CTF) systems, clear licensing rules, and safe channels for international finance.
• Create predictable economic rules on commercial law, property rights, and data protection to attract responsible investment.
• Build credible payment systems by using vetted intermediaries, piloting digital/blockchain tools, and engaging Gulf and diaspora financial hubs.
• Rebuild regulatory capacity via Central Bank reforms, anti-corruption mechanisms, and empowered parliamentary oversight.
• Integrate informal finance by licensing and gradually linking hawala networks to digital platforms while preserving accessibility.
• Deliver visible citizen benefits through reliable salary payments, secure remittance channels, and expanded small and medium-sized enterprises finance.

3. International Programming and Aid Delivery

• Safeguard civil society independence with direct multi-year funding.
• Prevent elite capture by maintaining diverse aid channels and linking funding to transparency.
• Balance stabilisation and development, ensuring continuity from emergency relief to inclusive economic recovery.
• Avoid parallel systems by aligning aid with legitimate national and local institutions.
• Strengthen coordination through joint donor assessments and a national, independent aid-monitoring platform.
• Ensure inclusive engagement by consulting governance actors and communities across regions.

4. Social Cohesion

• Promote civic, non-sectarian governance with strong minority protections and public consultation mechanisms.
• Reinforce local–national coherence by supporting legitimate local governance and structured multi-level forums.
• Address economic grievances through early anti-corruption bodies, cross-community projects, and market harmonisation.
• Support returns and reintegration by prioritising HLP rights, documentation, and community mediation.
• Advance transitional justice with national consultations, truth-seeking mechanisms, and an inclusive education curriculum.

5. Conflict Resolution & Local Political Settlements

• Strengthen national–local political linkages to rebuild trust and reduce political and social fragmentation.
• Support locally grounded stabilisation tied clearly to national frameworks.
• Create incentives for cooperation through shared service-delivery and inter-regional initiatives.
• Clarify the transition roadmap with transparent milestones and inclusive decision-making.
• Embed conflict sensitivity and early-warning in all planning.
• Align international support with Syrian-led priorities.

To learn more, contact Dr Juline Beaujouan at J.Beaujouan-Marliere@ed.ac.uk.