Elite Recyclement or Generational Change: South Sudan’s Critical Juncture

Author: Jan Pospisil

This article examines the structural dynamics underlying South Sudan’s current political moment, challenging prevailing narratives that frame the country’s instability as a breakdown of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS). Drawing on recent events, including renewed clashes, defections, and humanitarian deterioration, it argues that these developments reflect a generational succession crisis rather than a collapse of political will. A new cohort—comprising business elites, second-generation military actors, internationally educated technocrats, and civil society leaders—is beginning to assert influence, signalling a shift away from the wartime legacy of the ruling elite. The meteoric rise of Benjamin Bol Mel, from presidential advisor to vice president of the economic cluster, exemplifies the emergence of a new ruling class seeking to inherit, rather than transform, entrenched systems of patronage and extraction. The article contends that the future of South Sudan hinges less on the survival of the peace agreement than on whether this generational turnover will produce genuine political renewal or merely entrench kleptocratic governance under new actors.

This article was published online in African Affairs