As the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference drew to a close in Dubai this week, global reactions to the outcomes of the conference are mixed.
For those working in peace and conflict resolution, COP28 marked a historic acknowledgement of the links between climate change and conflict – but time will tell whether it will spur meaningful climate action in fragile and conflict-affected communities.
Browse PeaceRep’s key findings on environment, climate, and conflict.
COP28 highlights intersections between conflict and climate change
Acknowledging the links between climate change and conflict
On 3 December 2023, COP28 dedicated the first ever thematic day to Relief, Recovery, and Peace, culminating in a new declaration on climate, relief, recovery and peace that calls for bolder collective action for climate resilience in conflict-affected contexts.
Although fragile and conflict-affected states are among the hardest hit by the effects of climate change, they are allocated a disproportionately small amount of international resources for adaptation and recovery, and are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards and shocks. In countries experiencing conflict, climate change can exacerbate displacement, food insecurity, and humanitarian crises, and heighten instability. The declaration acknowledges these intersecting effects of conflict and climate change, and states:
“On the occasion of the 28th UN Climate Change Conference, the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, as well as the first Relief, Recovery and Peace Day at a COP, call for bolder collective action to build climate resilience at the scale and speed required in highly vulnerable countries and communities, particularly those threatened or affected by fragility or conflict, or facing severe humanitarian needs, many of which are Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States. We stress that an ambitious, immediate scale up of enhanced support is urgently needed in such situations, including financial resources; technical and institutional capacities; local, national, regional partnerships; and data and information, recognizing the importance of complementarity and predictability.”
The declaration commits to:
- Enhanced financial support for climate adaptation and resilience
- Understand and improve good practice and programming
- Strengthen coordination, collaboration, and partnerships
As a non-binding call to action outside the UNFCCC negotiations, the declaration has so far been endorsed by 74 countries and 40 organisations. Intended to accelerate climate action and resourcing in conflict-affected contexts, the declaration may be used as the start of discussions around climate-sensitive programming for practitioners and policymakers. Time will tell whether the declaration is sufficient to mobilise the international community to take meaningful conflict-sensitive climate action.
PeaceRep research on climate, peace, and conflict
PeaceRep’s research increasingly addresses the nexus between environmental issues, climate change, conflict, and peace processes. Browse our key findings on environment, climate, and conflict.
About ten percent (211 out of 2003) of global peace agreements from 1990-2023 include provisions relating to the environment. In recent years, a small number of peace processes have recognised the issue and impacts of climate change, through peace agreement provisions that explicitly reference climate change. These include commitments to prepare to mitigate risks caused by climate change, introducing legislation in line with the Paris Agreement, supporting hydropower development, mainstreaming climate change issues in policy, and acknowledging the impact of climate change on desertification in conflict between farmers and pastoralists (PA-X Version 7, 2023).
Relevant publications
Decarbonization and Conflict Resolution: Implications for the Clean Energy Transition
This policy brief from the World Peace Foundation outlines a new, nuanced relationship among conflict, peacemaking, and natural resources in violent, transactional political systems, describing how the availability of discretionary oil rents impacts patterns of peacemaking. In a related blog on decarbonization and conflict resolution, the a WPF highlights how proposed policies need careful consideration where they may lead to destabilization for carbon-based political marketplaces.
The New Era of Turbulence: Peacemaking Trends in Post-Carbon Times
Based on an empirical comparison of peace processes in carbon-dependent economies over time, this article investigates the impact of decarbonization and the related decline of political finance in respective political marketplaces on peacemaking. The author argues that, while the period of high oil prices in the mid-2000s was characterised several significant peace deals that attempted comprehensive settlements, the decline of oil prices in the years from 2013 to 2021 has led to a new era of turbulence.
Managing Climate Change under the De Facto Authorities
The Afghanistan Research Network discusses the state of climate change-related work in Afghanistan prior to the collapse of the Republic, and offers a series of practical recommendations for resuming work on this issue in the current context.
Resolving Water Conflicts: Dispute Settlement Mechanisms Applicable to International Water Resources
This report sets out in very general terms the international legal framework that supports dispute resolution, focusing in particular on a range of dispute mechanisms that are available to states with transboundary water disputes that could be considered to be part of any ‘tool kit’ of conflict avoidance or resolution.
Water Resources and Inter-state Conflict: Legal Principles and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
This report draws together the key principles of international law applicable to transboundary watercourse disputes regarding quantity of water, and assesses the extent to which these principles provide guidance in negotiating the Egypt-Ethiopia watercourse conflict whilst also giving consideration to other cases. The report examines how the principles of international law identified have been used in other similar negotiations, and may help guide the negotiations of the Egypt-Ethiopia conflict. A central component of the report suggests that a shift away from security centric zero-sum game water negotiations is possible if a more human needs based approach is adopted by states that find themselves in deadlocked hydro disputes.