Trends in Civic Space and Elections in South Sudan: Findings from the 2025 Public Perceptions of Peace Survey

Authors: David Deng, Sophia Dawkins, Christopher Oringa, and Jan Pospisil

This report draws on 2025 polling from 4,582 respondents across South Sudan, contributing to a dataset of more than 22,000 people since 2021. It assesses public views on peace, safety, elections, civic space, and trust in political institutions. Perceptions of safety have worsened sharply: nearly one-quarter of respondents say they feel unsafe, over twice the 2024 level. This decline reflects escalating insecurity, renewed clashes between government and opposition forces, community-level tensions, and growing regional strains. Confidence that the country is “at peace” has fallen.

Support for elections, however, remains strong. Most respondents feel ready to vote and favour holding elections as planned in December 2026. Yet two-thirds anticipate electoral violence, and almost half fear the polls could spark a return to civil war. Nevertheless, these concerns do not diminish public demand for a democratic transition.

Civic space is highly constrained. Many feel unsafe discussing politically sensitive issues, and trust in political actors is low. Awareness of the Tumaini peace process is limited, especially among women. While the SPLM retains a lead in public support, disillusionment with all parties is evident. The findings indicate South Sudan is entering a high-stakes phase and call for renewed efforts to safeguard civic space, strengthen civil society, and ensure a credible electoral process.

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