Financial Dependencies and Conflict Resolution: The Role of Militarised Mediators in Modern Insurgencies

Authors: Kasia Houghton and Elisa D’Amico

In modern conflicts, ‘militarised mediators’ – external actors who fund rebel groups and mediate the conflict – pose a paradox for conflict dynamics. This study examines their impact in Africa using the UCDP External Support Dataset and African Peace Processes Database. Fixed effect regression assesses whether external funding of rebels enhances mediator leverage in brokering peace agreements, while Cox hazard models evaluate peace durability post-agreement. Findings suggest external funding hastens settlements but reduces peace longevity. The dual role of militarised mediators introduces conflicting interests, undermining implementation. The study contributes to rebel finance and peacebuilding literatures by linking funding to mediation effectiveness.