Engaging with Sahelian Transitions: Changing Political and Geostrategic Context Calls for...

Edinburgh Dialogue 2025 | Policy Brief Series

Authors: Fahiraman Rodrigue Koné and Marie-Joëlle Zahar

This policy brief examines the consolidation of military-led transitions in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, arguing that traditional approaches to engagement may no longer be fit for purpose. As Sahelian regimes entrench military rule, redefine sovereignty and reshape international partnerships, the brief outlines three possible avenues for external actors: engaging directly with authorities, supporting inclusive practices while working with different societal groups, and collaborating with the diaspora. It calls for patient, context-sensitive engagement that recognizes both the constraints and risks of promoting inclusion in an increasingly authoritarian Sahel.

Following the 2025 Edinburgh Dialogue, a series of policy briefs were developed focusing on the evolution and current challenges of the statebuilding project within the context of fragmented conflicts and increasingly transactional approaches to peace mediation and peace building. Teresa Whitfield’s piece provides an overview of potential future scenarios in complex settings where state institutions may be fragmented and territories contested or where executive power may be consolidating, but where both national and international actors are seeking ways to build responsive, transparent and accountable institutions and processes. Other pieces explore specific examples including Myanmar, South Sudan and Syria, and develop suggestions for supporting more inclusive and sustainable political settlements.

This policy brief is available in French and English.

Read the other policy briefs in this series: 

Beyond the Deal? Rethinking Statebuilding Amid Conflict Fragmentation and Transactional Peacemaking (Teresa Whitfield)

Enhancing Prospects of Stabilization in South Sudan: Targeted Constitutional Reforms to Reduce Winner-Takes-All Politics (Adem Abebe)

Myanmar’s Fragmented Future: Evolving Governance and Conflict Dynamics Five Years after the 2021 Coup (Gun Mai Sumlut and Kimana Zulueta-Fülscher)

Syria at a Crossroads: Enhancing Inclusiveness in a Highly Centralized Political Transition (Zaid Al-Ali)