Conflict in a Warming World: How Climate Shocks Impact Rebel Demands and Peace Agreement Outcomes

Author: Elisa D’Amico

As climate change becomes more severe and its effects more frequently observed, its impact on global conflict is increasingly important. Climate shocks, acting as threat multipliers, worsen vulnerabilities in conflict areas, increasing demands for scarce resources like water and land. This report explores how climate shocks influence rebel demands and violence, and whether these changes are reflected in peace agreements.

Not only are the demands for redistribution or influence on management of resources increasing, but the salience of these demands grows for all sides in the conflict, making these topics more likely to be added to the core topics of peace talks.

Using geospatial climatological and conflict data, this study tests two main hypotheses: 1) climate shocks will increase rebel demands for climate-related resources, and 2) these increased demands will lead to more provisions for water, land, and resources in peace agreements. The research employs difference-in-differences and panel linear regression methods that allow us to isolate the effects of climate shocks on rebel activity and assess whether these demands are addressed in peace agreements.

The findings provide key insights into how climate pressures shape conflict and how we can expect conflicts to evolve in a future of worsening climatic conditions. It is reasonable to assume that any effects found now will be smaller than what we can expect under unmitigated global warming. Therefore, the effects observed with existing data are substantively significant, as they likely represent a conservative estimate of future impacts. These insights are crucial for understanding the dynamics of conflict and for informing conflict resolution strategies in a warming world.