Russian and Chinese Influence in Africa

Power Asymmetries and the Threat to African Union Agency in Global Governance

Author: Jessica F. McGrath

This report examines the growing influence of China and Russia in Africa and its implications for the autonomy of the African Union (AU). While both powers have increased their economic, military, and political presence across the continent since the early 2000s, this shift has coincided with a fragmentation of AU cohesion and diminished collective agency in global governance. The AU’s reliance on external funding, due in part to limited contributions from Member States, has exposed it to unsustainable aid dependencies that compromise its organisational independence. Simultaneously, bilateral agreements between Member States and China or Russia have challenged AU credibility and unity, often sidelining the AU’s institutional roles and objectives.

The report highlights AU efforts to address these challenges, including structural reforms, coordination mechanisms, and strategic partnerships with actors such as the EU and UN. It also explores the tension between the AU’s foundational values and the influence of global power dynamics, particularly within intergovernmental security decision-making spaces where the AU lacks equivalent authority. While Chinese and Russian engagement may incentivise self-interest over collective AU pursuit, the report outlines current initiatives aimed at enhancing the AU’s financial independence and institutional resilience. These developments underscore the importance of safeguarding continental interests and values in the face of shifting geopolitical alignments.