As host country, Azerbaijan’s proposal to make the U.N. COP 29 climate summit a “truce COP” is laudable but not enough to bridge the gap between the peacebuilding and climate change agendas.
Nisreen Elsaim and Tim Epple discuss Azerbaijan’s unique opportunity to address the intersection of climate change and conflict by advocating for peace-positive climate action, despite its controversial role in regional conflicts and human rights.
Opinion: This is what Azerbaijan can focus on instead of a ‘truce COP’
Despite the clear intersection between the existential threats of climate change and conflict, climate negotiations remain largely blind to them.
As the host of the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP 29, Azerbaijan has a rare and critical opportunity to bridge the gap between climate action and peacebuilding. By making peace a central negotiation item of COP 29, establishing a dedicated U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change peace constituency, and leading by example, Azerbaijan can show the path toward a more resilient and peaceful future.
The stark reality of how climate change fuels conflict has become undeniable. In regions already plagued by instability, the worsening climate crisis acts as a catalyst, intensifying conflict drivers and displacement. All 14 countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change are also experiencing conflict.
Last year’s COP 28 in the United Arab Emirates organized a thematic day focused on climate-conflict linkages and adopted a declaration on climate, relief, recovery, and peace. While a positive step, the lack of a binding legal framework hinders the declaration’s effectiveness. The conflict blind spot in global climate governance is alarming, particularly as the number of conflicts is at its highest point since World War II.
Given its geopolitical position at the crossroads between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia and its growing role as an alternative source to Russian gas, Azerbaijan is uniquely placed to lead a paradigm shift at COP 29.
But Azerbaijan’s “truce COP” proposal — a call for a global truce during the climate conference — while well-intentioned, is not the right approach to achieve this goal. The country’s 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and its poor human rights track record have eradicated the country’s credibility as a peacemaker. The call for this “truce COP” has inevitably led to accusations of hypocrisy and of Azerbaijan trying to “peacewash” its own history and role in the Caucasus.
“In light of allegations of a crackdown on civil society, Azerbaijan can make a powerful statement by releasing political prisoners and protecting independent journalism.”
Moreover, past initiatives, such as the U.N. secretary-general’s call for a global COVID-19 ceasefire, have had mixed outcomes and require significant sustained diplomatic and institutional support, which may be difficult to garner in the current geopolitical climate.
However, there are other, more promising steps Azerbaijan can take to make COP 29 a milestone for peace-positive climate action:
1. Make peace a negotiation item at COP 29
Azerbaijan could push for a formal agenda item at COP 29 that addresses the climate-conflict nexus. This would prompt negotiators to develop climate policies that are conflict-sensitive, ensuring that interventions do not inadvertently exacerbate or create tensions around natural resources or climate finance allocation.
For example, adaptation projects in water-scarce regions must consider the potential for conflict over resources and include mechanisms for dispute resolution. As part of the global climate finance target to be agreed at COP 29, the new collective quantifiable goal, setting a figure for climate finance going to fragile and conflict-affected settings would help, too.
To be sure, there will be resistance. Passing progressive action at COP 29 might require structural reforms, such as introducing a voting mechanism in UNFCCC processes rather than operating on the principle of consensus, which can dilute the ambition of any outcome. But by advocating for the inclusion of conflict sensitivity in the UNFCCC’s legal framework, Azerbaijan can help create a more holistic approach to climate action that addresses both environmental and social vulnerabilities.
This approach would not only strengthen the resilience of communities on the front lines of climate change but also contribute to global security.
2. Establish a dedicated UNFCCC peace constituency
Azerbaijan, in collaboration with the UNFCCC secretariat, should work toward the establishment of a dedicated peace constituency within the UNFCCC framework. This would provide a formal platform for peacebuilders, conflict-affected states, climate groups, and local community groups to collaborate on developing peace-positive climate action. This would ensure that peace considerations are systematically integrated into climate policies and provide a mechanism for monitoring and evaluating the impact of these policies.
In the medium to long term, this could lead to the creation of legally binding frameworks that hold states accountable for the peace implications of their climate actions. Moreover, by fostering collaboration between the peacebuilding and climate communities, this constituency could advance climate justice and drive innovation in climate-conflict responses, ranging from early warning systems to climate-resilient infrastructure projects in conflict zones.
3. Lead by example
The conflict with Armenia remains unresolved and concerns linger that war might return once the spotlight of COP 29 fades. Azerbaijan has a unique opportunity to demonstrate leadership at the intersection of climate and peace by pursuing a lasting peace agreement and fostering environmental cooperation as a means of confidence-building and reconciliation between the two nations.
In light of allegations of a crackdown on civil society, Azerbaijan can make a powerful statement by releasing political prisoners and protecting independent journalism. By actively engaging civil society in the lead-up to COP 29, Baku would signal its commitment to democratic values, transparency, and accountability, reinforcing its credentials to promote justice also on the global climate stage.
The challenges are immense, but the potential rewards – for both the planet and its people – are even greater. Now is the time for bold, credible leadership and visionary thinking.
This blog was originally published by Devex on 15 October 2024.
About the authors
Nisreen Elsaim
Nisreen Elsaim is an environmental and climate expert with a bachelor’s degree in physics and a master’s in renewable energy from the University of Khartoum. She is the former chair of the U.N. secretary general’s Youth Advisory Group on Climate Change and a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy, contributing to global climate policy and youth empowerment.
Tim Epple
Tim Epple is the managing director of the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform led by Edinburgh Law School. Tim works at the intersection of research and practice, providing evidence to parties in live peace processes to support mediation. His research focuses on the relationship between climate change and peacemaking.