The Perils of Pseudo-Democracy: Venezuela’s Election and Its Regional Implications

Nicolás Maduro’s recent win of the presidential election in Venezuela is shrouded in suspicion and fraud. These election results reaffirm a stark and troubling picture: a government that has extended its control for a quarter-century, systematically dismantling democratic institutions, eroding the rule of law, and doing little to address a severe economic crisis that has resulted in the mass exodus of millions. This ongoing scenario reflects the persistent grip of what can be considered a pseudo-democratic authoritarian regime, which we argue masquerades as a democracy by holding elections while simultaneously subverting the fundamental principles that underpin true democratic governance. As corroborated by the Carter Centre this week, the July 2024 Venezuelan elections “cannot be considered democratic” (Reuters, 2024a).

For 25 years, the Venezuelan government has entrenched itself in power through tactics that undermine democracy. According to Linz and Stepan’s regime typologies, it could be suggested that Venezuela exhibits characteristics of a competitive authoritarian regime, where formal democratic institutions exist, and elections are held, but the playing field is heavily skewed in favour of the incumbents (Linz & Stepan, 1996). This typology helps explain how Venezuela maintains a façade of democracy to comply with constitutional and international norms while subverting essential democratic elements; an statement that is backed up by evidence. The judiciary, once a bulwark against autocratic overreach, has been co-opted, rendering it a tool of the executive branch. The legislative body, intended to represent the people’s will, has been systematically weakened. Freedom House (2023) scores Venezuela a mere 14 out of 100 in political rights and civil liberties, reflecting severe democratic deterioration. This erosion of democratic principles has enabled widespread corruption and repression. Transparency International ranks Venezuela 177 out of 180 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index, highlighting the extent of corruption that plagues the nation (Transparency International, 2023). The government’s control over the CNE (National Electoral council) raises doubt over whether elections are neither free and fair, or rather if they seek to guarantee the regime’s continuity.

Systematic Human Rights Violations and Economic Catastrophe

The consequences of this authoritarian stranglehold extend beyond political repression; they are starkly evident in Venezuela’s economic collapse. Mismanagement and corruption have driven the once-prosperous petrol nation into a severe economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Venezuela’s GDP has shrunk by more than 75% since 2014 (IMF, 2023). Hyperinflation, estimated by the IMF to reach 5,500% in 2024, has rendered the local currency virtually worthless, leading to severe shortages of basic goods and services (IMF, 2023). This economic implosion has left the majority of Venezuelans struggling to survive. Basic necessities like food and medicine are scarce, and public services have all but collapsed. The population’s quality of life has plummeted, with poverty rates soaring to unprecedented levels. Venezuela’s poverty statistics are staggering. According to the World Bank (2023), an estimated 96% of Venezuelans live in poverty, with 79% in extreme poverty. Importantly, Venezuela’s struggles have been exacerbated by the economic and oil sanctions placed on the country by the US and the EU since 2017; with the new election results, such international policy is likely to continue (Reuters, 2024b).

The Venezuelan regime has been systematically violating human rights, further exacerbating the nation’s crisis. Reports from organisations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International document widespread abuses, including arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, and the suppression of free speech and assembly. The United Nations Human Rights Council has condemned the government’s actions, highlighting the dire situation faced by activists, journalists, and ordinary citizens who dare to dissent (UNHRC, 2023). According to Human Rights Watch, over 18,000 people have been arbitrarily detained since 2014, with more than 15,000 being subjected to ill-treatment or torture (HRW, 2023). Amnesty International reports that between January and September 2022, there were over 300 extrajudicial executions documented by local organisations (Amnesty International, 2023).

One of the most notorious sites of human rights violations is the Helicoide building, which houses the headquarters of the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN). Detainees at Helicoide report severe conditions, including torture, overcrowding, and a lack of basic necessities (BBC, 2019). These reports underscore the regime’s systematic use of violence against the opposition and arbitrary civilian repression to maintain control.

The government’s use of state violence to suppress dissent has led to a polarised society. Massive demonstrations against the government are often met with brutal crackdowns by security forces. This cycle of protest and repression heightens the risk of escalating violence, potentially plunging the country into deeper conflict. The regime’s refusal to respect basic human rights standards poses a severe threat to peace and stability within Venezuela.

The human toll of Venezuela’s prolonged crisis is immense. As of July 2024, an estimated 20% of the population, or about 7.7 million people, now lives abroad, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, 2023). This mass exodus is a stark testament to people’s desperation and hopelessness, with a recent poll suggesting an additional third of the resident population planned to leave following a re-election of Maduro (BBC, 2024). Strict rules imposed on the diaspora have made it exceedingly difficult for Venezuelans living abroad to participate in elections, further disenfranchising a significant portion of the population. This outflow of people has drained the country’s talent and labour force while placing immense strain on neighbouring countries. Colombia, for instance, has received over 2.9 million Venezuelan migrants, putting further strain on already-stretched resources (Migration Colombia, 2023). Other countries in the region are similarly affected, grappling with the humanitarian and logistical challenges posed by this migration crisis.

The international community has responded with significant pressure not to recognise the election results. Leaders from the United States, the European Union, and several Latin American countries have condemned the electoral process as undemocratic. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated, “The United States will not recognise the results of this fraudulent election, and we urge the international community to support the Venezuelan people in their quest for democracy” (US Department of State, 2023). Similarly, the European Union issued a statement denouncing the lack of transparency and fairness in the electoral process (EU External Action, 2023). Given the escalating violence and systematic human rights violations, international actors must demand transparency and compliance with human rights standards. Pressure from the international community is crucial in urging the Venezuelan government to respect basic democratic principles and protect the rights of its citizens.

The implications of Venezuela’s prolonged crisis are far-reaching. For Latin America, Venezuela’s situation is a cautionary tale of the dangers of unchecked authoritarianism. Neighbouring countries, already struggling with their own political and economic challenges, are now also dealing with the humanitarian impact of Venezuela’s collapse. In the broader context, particularly for the United States, Venezuela’s crisis poses significant challenges and considerations. The US has historically viewed Latin America as a region of strategic importance. The ongoing instability in Venezuela complicates diplomatic relations and impacts regional security. Moreover, the migration crisis has ramifications for US immigration policy and the political landscape, particularly in states with large Venezuelan communities. Considering that 2024 is also a US election year, there is a risk for widespread political volatility across the Americas.

Venezuela’s recent election results are a stark reminder of the entrenchment of pseudo-democratic authoritarianism and the collapse of democratic institutions. The regime’s prolonged grip on power has not only contributed towards devastation of the nation’s once-strong economy, but has also led to a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions in the Americas. The inability to hold transparent elections under the current regime ensures that the cycle of crisis and control continues unabated. The international community’s refusal to recognize the election results underscores the widespread condemnation of the Venezuelan regime’s practices. However, this pressure must be coupled with robust support for democratic resilience and humanitarian assistance.

The risk of increasing levels of violence due to social movements and widespread discontent is a significant concern. As the population grows more desperate, the potential for civil unrest and conflict rises, posing further challenges to regional stability. The regional implications are profound, affecting neighbouring countries and posing significant challenges for US foreign policy and immigration dynamics.

About the authors

Dr Johanna Amaya-Panche is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at PeaceRep, based at the University of Edinburgh.

Dr Rebecca Irons is a Senior Research Fellow at University College London, Institute for Global Health.

References

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Reuters (2024b). Explainer: Will Venezuela’s disputed election lead to new era of isolation?

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2023). Venezuela Situation.

BBC (2024). Venezuela’s Maduro declared winner in disputed vote

Migration Colombia. (2023). Migratory Report.

US Department of State. (2023). Statement on Venezuela Elections.

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BBC News. (2023). Helicoide Building Conditions.

World Bank. (2023). Poverty and Inequality Platform.

Linz, J. J., & Stepan, A.C. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation.