Nordic Frontline States? How Finland and Sweden impact NATO's security

Author: Wojciech Michnik

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought several noteworthy consequences, including for NATO’s Northern and Eastern Flank’s regional security architecture. Following decades of peaceful coexistence in the region, some Nordic states (Finland and Sweden) have found themselves on a verge of a strategic choice. The direct result of the Russia-instigated war in Ukraine were the decisions made by Finland and Sweden to seek membership in NATO. Within a span of one year, both Finland (April 2023) and Sweden (March 2024) became members of NATO. This paper builds up on the explanatory power of the “frontline states” concept, as presented in the previous report, yet it focuses on the examination of the impact of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership on the defence posture of the Alliance. As both of these states are becoming vital for the strengthening of other NATO’s frontline states, the author will assess the role of these newcomers in the Alliance’s defence and deterrence strategy. Additionally, the paper will highlight key implications of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession for the Baltic Sea new security architecture in the light of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War.

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