Sudan
PeaceRep research in Sudan
Sudan’s twin transition from armed conflict and authoritarian rule has been stalled since the military coup of October 2021 and the installation of a military junta under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. In April 2023, tensions escalated further between al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), resulting in violent clashes breaking out in Khartoum.
As of early May 2023, violence has spread across the country as the two generals continue to fight for control, leading some analysts to predict the beginning of an ongoing civil war.
Since the 2021 coup, Sudan has also faced a deep economic crisis, in which extractive politics can either be subverted or entrenched by ongoing shifts in the national, regional, and international political economies. Ongoing political instability risks deeper fragmentation for Sudan’s peace processes. Amidst the conflict and instability, Sudan’s civic communities continue to demonstrate the power of civic movements to meaningfully resist the coercive politics that defines the nature of governance in Sudan.
PeaceRep’s Sudan research is examining Sudan’s democratic transition through the development of policy analyses and academic research rooted in robust evidence bases gathered in Sudan, South Sudan, and from across the world.
Our Sudan research explores a number of themes, including civic inclusion in peace and economic processes; the role of digital technologies in the violation and application of humanitarian law and consequences for famine prevention; and natural resource management.
Sudan is also a key element of our work in the Global Transitions series, which looks at fragmentations in the global order and how these impact peace and transition settlements.
Sudan peace agreements since 1990 can be accessed via the PA-X Peace Agreements Database, including the Juba Peace Agreement of 3 October 2020.
Team
PeaceRep’s Sudan research is led by the Conflict and Civicness Research Group at London School of Economics and the Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations (CTPSR) at Coventry University. The project is delivered in collaboration with World Peace Foundation, Tufts University.
Sudan Research and Analysis
The PeaceRep Sudan research team are considering the implications of the 2023 conflict for current research and forthcoming reports.
PeaceRep researchers and research partners have published recent reports offering insights and recommendations relevant to the current situation in Sudan.
Relevant Partner Research
Sustaining Momentum: Seizing the opportunity for SSR in Sudan (LSE; World Peace Foundation)
Sudan: A Political Marketplace Framework Analysis (World Peace Foundation)
Can’t see the table below? Access all PeaceRep blogs
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Publications (alternative view)
Fragmented Transitions in the Context of Competitive Regionalism: The Case of Sudan
tileSince the fighting began, PeaceRep Sudan researchers and contributors have offered analysis and commentary on the emerging situation in the media.
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Alex de Waal (PeaceRep – LSE Conflict and Civicness Research Group (CCRG) / World Peace Foundation, Tufts University) and analyst Kholood Khair sat on the Al Jazeera Inside Story panel, Could standoff in Sudan turn into a civil war? | 14 April 2023 |
Jan Pospisil (PeaceRep – Coventry University) appeared live on TRT World to comment on the outbreak of RSF – SAF fighting | 15 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal contributed to The Conversation: Sudan conflict: Hemedti – the warlord who built a paramilitary force more powerful than the state | 17 April 2023 |
Raga Makawi (PeaceRep – LSE CCRG) was quoted in the New York Times: Fighting in Sudan Traps Families as Generals Fail to Keep a Ceasefire | 18 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal wrote Sudan’s New War and Prospects for Peace, World Peace Foundation/Tufts University | 19 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal and Kholood Khair were quoted in the New York Times: Sudan’s Generals Dined with Peace Negotiators, Then Started a War | 19 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal was quoted in the Washington Post: Generals’ war chests have fueled fighting in Sudan. Now they’re at risk | 19 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal appeared on VOA Africa: Sudan in Crisis | 19 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal wrote Sudan is tearing itself apart and Washington lost its capacity to help in Responsible Statecraft | 20 April 2023 |
Jan Pospisil appeared live on TRT World to comment on the likelihood of protracted conflict | 21 April 2023 |
Willow Berridge, Justin Lynch, Raga Makawi and Alex de Waal co-wrote Sudan’s Unfinished Democracy: The Promise and Betrayal of a People’s Revolution, included in the New York Times article: Books to Help Understand Sudan [subscriber access only] | 21 April 2023 |
Raga Makawi wrote a personal account of the conflict in Khartoum, published by The Economist: My desperate search for safety in Sudan [registration required] | 22 April 2023 |
Matthew Benson (PeaceRep – LSE CCRG) discussed the importance of involving civic groups in ceasefire negotiations on CGTN Europe | 24 April 2023 |
Jan Pospisil discussed how urban conflict is impacting Sudanese civilians with Nicky Campbell on BBC Radio 5 | 25 April 2023 |
Jan Pospisil appeared on TRT World to offer insights into the conflict on 25 April and 28 April | 25, 28 April 2023 |
Jan Pospisil featured on BBC Midlands | 26 April 2023 |
Matthew Benson appeared on Al Jazeera: The Listening Post | 29 April 2023 |
Alex de Waal was quoted in the New York Times op-ed, Does America Realize That Sudan Is Too Big to Fail? | 2 May 2023 |
Jan Pospisil appeared on CGTN Europe to comment on the likelihood of negotiations commencing in Sudan | 3 May 2023 |
Jan Pospisil appeared on TRT World to comment on the possibility of conflict spreading to the wider region | 6 May 2023 |
Alex de Waal wrote an article, The Revolution No One Wanted, published in the London Review of Books | 10 May 2023 |
Jan Pospisil gave a live interview via TRT World discussing reasons for the SAF withdrawal from a ceasefire deal. | 1 June 2023 |
Jan Pospisil gave a live interview via TRT World commenting on U.S. aid to Sudan and neighbouring countries. | 21 June 2023 |
Jan Pospisil gave a live interview via TRT World commenting on support for Sudan’s conflicting military forces. | 26 June 2023 |