ChaturAsti Afghanistan: Insights on Peace and Conflict from the PA-X Tracker

“Truth and non-violence are as old as the hills” – Gandhi 

But what if the hills themselves are silent spectators providing sanctuary to violence?

Afghanistan, with its trademark of being the “graveyard of empires” continues to shock and awe the world. In 2021, the Taliban returned to power, introducing an authoritarian regime with violence as its foundation. Over the past 35 years (i.e. the timeframe that PA-X began its record of peace and transition processes) and since the downfall of the Soviet Union, Afghanistan has introduced at least four regimes, with the ‘Loya Jirga’ (tribal council of elders and its variations as Peace Jirga) remaining the only constant. Leaders of the Jirga stand tall like the mountains and hills of Afghanistan. But are they also silent spectators like the hills too?[1]

The PA-X Tracker provides a clear timeline of the various regimes, along with the preceding and subsequent violence involving these regimes. Interestingly, within this conflict and change of regimes, we find another constant – that of the struggle of women who are fighting for their basic human rights. One regime proclaims them as the sacred gifts of God to be preserved in the safe confines of houses (the Taliban regime), while the other promised enormous empowerment on paper (the “democratic” regime).

Varieties of democracy in Afghanistan graph
A view of the PA-X Tracker implementation data for Afghanistan, which can be accessed through ‘Peace Impacts’ and the ‘Political’ tab.

Peace and Corruption

A curious insight from the Tracker is that global parameters of peace and administration appear to have shown some improvement since the Taliban’s capture of Kabul. Through the PA-X Tracker, one could look at how the Global Peace Index monitoring conflicts in Afghanistan shows a positive shift in the country’s parameters. Lest we be fooled, the country still holds the last rank in the Global Peace Index report and retains its status as the least peaceful country in the world.

A view of PA-X Tracker implementation data for Afghanistan
This view of the PA-X Tracker’s security data for Afghanistan draws on trusted external sources.

Nevertheless, the country does show an improvement on the corruption parameter. The Corruption Perception Index shows an uptick in the perception amongst Afghans that the new regime is less corrupt than the “democratic” regime that remained a cornerstone of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for over two decades. Is democracy then a non-requirement for Afghans? One interpretation is that democracy exists through the Loya Jirga, but perhaps perceptions that aid was being ‘gobbled up’ by the previous administration explains the surprising attitudes towards corruption. This goes against normative perceptions that elections lead to less corruption.

But if the new regime is less corrupt, why aren’t Afghan emigrants sending personal remittances back to the country? Or is it the case that the freezing of accounts and transaction restrictions on transfers are the issue? In 2021, we see a significant fall in personal remittances sent to Afghanistan. Given the need for humanitarian aid in Afghanistan, such remittances could have proven useful. Remittances are rising again, but have not reached the height of previous levels according to available data.

Graph showing remittances data for Afghanistan since 2005
This graph uses World Bank data to show personal remittances received in Afghanistan since 2005, and is accessed through the ‘Economy’ tab of the Peace Impacts view.

The PA-X Tracker captures these paradoxical complexities of Afghanistan. This new digital tool allows users working on or researching Afghanistan to gain interesting, and sometimes surprising, insights into the status of peace and conflict in the country, even if one only seeks to say ChaturAsti[2] Afghanistan!


Endnotes

[1] See new constitution 1990, BONN agreement 2001, new constitution 2004, Berlin declaration 2004, Pak-Afghan Peace Jirga 2007, The London Conference 2010, National Consultative Peace Jirga 2010, Kabul Conference 2010, The International Afghanistan Conference in Bonn 2011, National Unity Government 2014

[2] ChaturAsti is a Pashto word that can be translated to ‘how are you doing’ in English.

About the author:

Saketh Srinivas is currently pursuing his LLM in Law at The University of Edinburgh, and has previous experience in research on conflict related governance issues. He also worked with PeaceRep as a PA-X Peace Agreement Analysts ahead of the launch of Version 8 of the database.